JAKARTA – Indonesia’s Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) economist Yusuf Rendy Manilet said that the tightening of social restrictions imposed by the government next week will have a significant impact on the economy. This policy even has the opportunity to drive economic growth at a negative level, especially in the first quarter.
This potential is even higher if the approach taken by the government in making several policies. Is relatively the same as the previous implementation of Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB). “Where are there still local residents who are not discipline in implementing health protocols,” said Yusuf when contact Thursday (7/1).
PSBB Is Forced To Be Done If You Don’t Want Covid-19 Cases To Increase
On the other hand, Yusuf added, PSBB must be carried out followed by the addition of test capacity. A more massive tracing, and more aggressive isolation. If not, the spread of the virus will become more massive, while the economic recovery has not been maximally accelerated.
If the combination of tests, tracing and PSBB is not carried out, Yusuf said, the economic recovery process will be hampered. The improvement in economic conditions took place in a longer period of time, namely more than the first quarter.
The challenge is mainly felt in household consumption growth. However, this sector can recover if the government has distributed social assistance (bansos) and similar assistance quickly and accurately.
The government’s plan to distribute aid to affected communities since the beginning of the year has been a positive step. However, Yusuf provided a note that the accuracy of distribution data such as Integrated Welfare Data (DTKS) must be ensured.
On the other hand, the distribution of non-cash assistance must also be channeled in conjunction with the Family Hope Program (PKH) which has been running for a long time. “How it is distributed will determine the performance of household consumption in the first quarter which is hampered by the PSBB,” said Yusuf.
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