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The World Economic Predicted To Grow Negatively, What Is The Fate of Indonesian Trade?

Indonesian trade agreement with Australia
Indonesian trade agreement with Australia

Jakarta – The pandemic that spreads in more than 120 countries caused the world monetary organization, the IMF, in the World economic outlook in April 2020 to estimate that world economic growth this year will grow negatively by 3 percent.

Likewise, The world trade estimated will fall to negative 11 percent. In fact, the WTO predicts that world trade will fall deeply, namely between negative 13 percent and negative 32 percent.

This was conveyed by Plt. Director General of Foreign Trade, Srie Agustina. In a web seminar (webinar) on Trade Remedi in the Pandemic: Opportunities and Challenges Monday (8/6/2020).

Even so, Srie sees that Indonesia’s trade balance for the January-April 2020 period still recorded a surplus of USD 2.24 million.

“It turns out that this surplus was contributed by exports to the world reaching USD 53.95 billion. Up slightly by 0.44 percent, and imports decreased by 7.78 percent. Compared to the same period in the previous year with a total of USD 51.71 billion,” he explained .

Furthermore, Srie added that imports in April 2020 decreased by 6.1 percent compared to March, from USD 13.4 billion to USD 12.5 billion. In addition, compared to last year, April 2020 imports decreased considerably, namely -18.6 percent.

Meanwhile, if viewed by category of use of goods, Indonesia’s imports from the world during the January-April 2020 period consisted of raw materials with a market share of 75.5 percent. Capital goods and consumption with a share of 15.1 percent and 9.4 percent, respectively. 

Economic Impacts on Indonesian Raw Material Import

Indonesian Trade Export-Import
Indonesian Trade Export-Import

Meanwhile, the import value of raw materials during the January-April 2020 period reached USD 39.05 billion.  Down 7.3 percent compared to the January-April 2019 period.

And imports of capital goods also decreased by 14.1 percent. Meanwhile, the import value of consumer goods did not change when compared to January-March 2019.

“With the indicator of a decrease in imports of raw materials and capital goods. We need to be aware of this because it shows that industrial movements in our country are not moving too much, and may be disrupted.” He said.

However, Indonesia is happy because it can control imports of consumer goods. Because according to Srie the value so far has not increased significantly compared to last year.    


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